Poland: Economic Forecast 2018


Poland is the sixth largest economy in EU and has experienced a positive economic growth in the past years. The Polish economy performed well during the 2014-17 period, with the real GDP growth rate generally exceeding 3%.

One of the Eastern Europe’s three biggest economies, Poland has been outpacing even German growth for the past few years. Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic are experiencing a “Goldilocks moment” of high economic growth, low unemployment, and manageable inflation.

As in Romania, the solid growth is driven by domestic demand: fast wage growth, low unemployment rates and strong consumer confidence.


Economic activity continued to expand at a strong pace in Q4, following a buoyant Q3


The main sectors of industry

In Poland, agriculture contributes only 2.4% of GDP, manufacturing sector contributes nearly 33% of GDP, whereas the services sector represents approx. 64% of GDP.  The services sector is booming, employing 11.5% of total employment. It includes financial services, logistics, hotel services, utilities and IT.

In 2017, Poland experienced a significant improvement in balance of trade, especially because of export surplus and rapid expansion of exports of services. It is expected that in 2018, the export surplus will continue to be strong so the current account should remain well balanced.


Sources: European Economic Forecast. Autumn 2017, Santander Trade Portal